Technical appendix.
Full assumptions, source data and calculation breakdowns behind the provisional €29.7M annual cost-of-drift scenario for An Post.
1 · Enterprise inputs & assumptions
Every parameter the model depends on.
Because specific internal HR figures were omitted, this analysis applies industry-standard enterprise benchmarks tailored to state-owned postal, logistics and retail operations in Ireland. Each input below should be replaced with An Post's own data before any decision is taken.
| Parameter | Baseline Input | Source / Method |
|---|---|---|
| Total headcount | 9,000 employees | European state-owned enterprise benchmark (postal, logistics & retail) |
| 50+ cohort size | 3,600 employees | Assumed ~40% of headcount aged 50+, per postal & logistics age profiles |
| Average annual compensation | €45,000 | Sector average salary plus pension and employer costs |
| Prepared / unprepared split | 50% / 50% | Default baseline ratio in the absence of internal segmentation data |
| Prepared 50+ cohort | 1,800 employees | 3,600 × 50% |
| Unprepared 50+ cohort | 1,800 employees | 3,600 × 50% |
| 50+ annual salary pool | €81,000,000 per cohort | 1,800 × €45,000 |
Effective productivity output rates
| Cohort | Output Rate | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Prepared cohort output | 90% – 95% | WAI ~41.5 — 'Good to Excellent' work ability band |
| Unprepared cohort output | 65% – 70% | WAI ~31.0 — 'Moderate to Poor' work ability band |
| Differential applied | 25% of salary pool | Midpoint gap, applied conservatively to the unprepared pool only |
2 · Calculation breakdown
From 1,800 unprepared employees to €29.7M.
Step 1 · Direct productivity drag
1,800 employees × €45,000 × 25%
WAI-derived presenteeism loss: unprepared workers are present but operating ~25% below standard throughput in sorting, delivery and retail roles.
€20,250,000
Step 2 · Absenteeism & disability risk
1,800 employees × €45,000 × 5%
5% excess short- and long-term sick leave in the unprepared cohort, expressed as an additional share of the salary pool.
€4,050,000
Step 3 · Base annual drag
€20,250,000 + €4,050,000
The friction-free baseline: direct productivity loss plus absenteeism and disability risk.
€24,300,000
Step 4 · Indirect operational friction
€24,300,000 × ~22% uplift
Team re-assignments, unplanned overtime coverage, temporary staffing and reduced processing throughput.
€5,400,000
Step 5 · Total annual exposure
€24,300,000 + €5,400,000
Equivalent to approximately 450 full-time roles of lost operational capacity (€29.7M ÷ €66,000 fully-loaded capacity cost per role).
€29,700,000
3 · Recovery model
How 20% – 40% becomes €5.9M – €11.8M.
| Intervention | Cost Recovery | Annual Value | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phased retirement & flexible rostering | 15% – 20% | €3.6M – €4.8M | Reduced presenteeism and overtime substitution costs |
| Ergonomic job redesign & role crafting | 10% – 15% | €2.4M – €3.6M | Bridging the 10.5-point WAI gap and preventing early disability exits |
| Health & financial wellness counselling | 5% – 10% | €1.2M – €2.4M | Reduced health-related sick leave and better planning predictability |
Recovery percentages are applied against the €24.3M base drag. The combined lower bound (20%) yields €5.9M per year against the €29.7M total exposure; the combined upper bound (40%) yields €11.8M.
4 · Source data
Where the benchmarks come from.
European Work Ability Index (WAI)
Occupational-health measure of physical and mental capacity relative to job demands; basis for the 41.5 vs 31.0 cohort scores and the 25% capacity differential.
Public firmographic data on An Post
10,271 FTEs and €1.05bn revenue reported in 2025, with 8,000+ FTEs across collection, sorting, distribution and local delivery.
European state-owned enterprise benchmarks
Sector salary, pension and employer-cost averages for postal, logistics and retail operations in Ireland.
5 · Caveats & data quality
Read the numbers with this in mind.
- ✳All financial figures are provisional scenario estimates, not measured An Post losses.
- ✳Internal HR data (actual age profile, absence, turnover, salary bands) was omitted; benchmarks stand in until An Post's own data is available.
- ✳WAI scores are cohort baselines drawn from European research, not individual assessments.
- ✳The 50/50 prepared/unprepared split is a neutral default; the real ratio is a question for measurement.
- ✳Indirect friction is modelled at ~22% of the base drag and is the least precise element of the model.
The purpose of this appendix is to show why the question is worth testing — the next step is to replace every benchmark above with An Post's own workforce data and measure what actually changes.